Transcript – Myth5

[ Music ] ^M00:00:10

[Person 1:] I think if a nuclear bomb went off, we would pretty much all be done for. We would all be vaporized.

[Person 2:] I remember doing the drills in elementary school – duck and cover drills.

[Person 3:] A desk is not going to save you from an A-bomb.

[Person 2:] Really!

[Person 4:] No, I don’t think so. I guess if you’re far away enough from the explosion, then like yeah, you would not hit the blast. But I guess some kind of radioactive cloud is gonna kill you anyways.

[Vivi:] Clearly these people don’t think it’s possible to survive a nuclear detonation. And, frankly, I understand where they are coming from.

[Armin:] It’s true that a nuclear detonation will cause catastrophic damage and result in many lives lost, but the impact really does depend on the size of the weapon itself and the actions people take in the aftermath of the explosion.

[Vivi:] Please explain.

[Armin:] The kind of nuclear incident that is a more likely threat now is an improvised nuclear device, or IND. These weapons are much smaller than those developed by nations for defense purposes. So, just the size of the weapon will be a limiting factor. That’s not to say an IND detonation wouldn’t be a serious incident. It will be totally devastating in a relatively small geographic area. But it doesn’t compare with the doomsday scenario we once confronted.

[Vivi:] I get what you’re saying – an IND would not be close to the same scale as the Cold War nuclear scenarios.

[Armin:] That’s right.

[Vivi:] But what type of damage could we see from an IND? It would be larger than a dirty bomb, right?

[Armin:] Absolutely. A dirty bomb uses conventional explosives to spread radioactive contamination. It won’t even be close to the explosive power of an improvised nuclear device. The main concerns for an IND are the physical damage from the heat and the blast of the explosion, the intense radiation at the moment of explosion, and the radioactive fallout that shortly follows. This map shows a model for a 10-kiloton improvised nuclear device. It shows three damage zones – severe, moderate, and light. The severe damage zone has a radius of approximately 1 mile, and survival in this area is unlikely. The moderate damage zone extends for about 1.5 to 2 miles. This is the area where there is the greatest potential for saving lives. The light damage zone extends 2-5 miles beyond ground zero. There may be numerous injuries in this area, but they will tend to be less severe than in the moderate damage zone.

[Vivi:] What about the radioactive fallout?

[Armin:] Fallout will be a concern not just near ground zero, but also a significant distance downwind. But the thing to remember about radioactive fallout is that it decays – or loses energy – quickly. You can see from this model how the fallout plume shrinks as time passes. People in the area downwind can take protective actions to limit their radiation dose while the fallout decays away.

[Vivi:] That’s interesting, because, based on research and focus groups CDC has conducted, the public’s perception of the health effects from radiation include immediate death, cancer, and genetic mutations that can be passed down to new generations. But you’re saying that even people in the moderate damage zone and in the fallout zone can survive?

[Armin:] That’s right. In fact, timely and accurate risk communication has more life-saving potential than any other response action. After an IND, people need to get inside a safe, sturdy building, and take shelter until they are notified that it is safe to leave, and that may take 1 to 2 days.

[Vivi:] Local health officials can work with their radiation protection program to develop shelter-in-place messages for radiation emergencies. Educating people on the importance of sheltering in place before an emergency will help people follow this direction during an emergency.

[Armin:] Given the fact that there will be a great deal of infrastructure damage after an IND, would it be challenging to communicate this information during the emergency?

[Vivi:] Well, outside of the moderate damage zone, it is possible that most of the traditional channels – television, radio, websites, social media – can still be used. Text messaging is particularly useful, as it usually works when TV and Internet are unavailable. There has also been a significant push in the last few years to use the Wireless Emergency Alerts system. That is a federal communications system designed to target emergency alerts to specific geographic areas. It’s great for delivering location-specific information, like how long to shelter in place or the best evacuation route to take when it is time to leave. But the concern that some infrastructure may not work as we hoped is another reason why it’s so important to do as much education as we can beforehand. ^M00:05:22

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