Recommendations for Fully Vaccinated People
COVID-19 Homepage
New Year, Same Variant
Interpretive Summary for January 6, 2023
New Year, Same Variant
Nowcast estimated variant proportions,
United States: 10/8/22―1/7/23
CDC’s goal is to provide actionable information to public health professionals and the American public. Because Omicron sublineage XBB.1.5 data were displayed separately from XBB data on COVID Data Tracker’s Nowcast projections for the first time last week, we thought it would be helpful to explain the different variant proportion information CDC provides. This includes how the Nowcast forecasting tool works—what it is (a projection based on a model that has been accurate over time) versus what it isn’t (a literal, real-time count of variants based on sequenced viruses from people with COVID-19).
CDC uses two methods to display variant proportions: weighted estimates and Nowcast estimates. Weighted estimates for each circulating lineage are very precise, but it takes two to three weeks for sample collection, specimen treatment, shipping, and analysis to occur. CDC uses Nowcast to forecast variant proportions before the weighted estimates are available.
Sublineages with weighted estimates less than 1% of all circulating variants are combined with their parent lineage for reporting of both weighted and Nowcast estimates. Variant proportion estimates for XBB.1.5 were first separated from its parent (XBB) the week of December 31, when its most recent weighted estimate (based on information from the week of December 10) rose to about 4%. Because of its fast growth rate, its Nowcast estimate was projected to be around 41% by the end of December.
But projections can be uncertain when a variant is just beginning to spread. When Nowcast predicted XBB.1.5 at 41%, there was a wide prediction range of about 23% to 61%. Since then, more data have come in from mid-December, as well as additional data delayed by the holidays. As a result, the projection for the week ending December 31 was revised to 18%, but with a higher degree of certainty (prediction range of 9% to 33%), followed by an increase to 28% for the most recent week of January 6 (prediction range of 14% to 47%).
These findings demonstrate that XBB.1.5 is spreading quickly. At this time, CDC’s COVID-19 guidance remains the same about how people can best protect themselves from serious illness. CDC will continue to investigate the ways in which XBB.1.5 may be different from other Omicron lineages and will continue to update COVID Data Tracker’s Variant Proportions page on a weekly basis.
- COVID Data Tracker’s Vaccinations in Nursing Homes page was updated with two new visualizations displaying data on nursing home residents and staff who are up to date with COVID-19 vaccines.
- COVID Data Tracker’s Vaccination Equity page was updated to display “At Least One Dose” options for the total population and the populations ages younger than 18 years, 18 years and older, and 65 years and older. A new “Updated (Bivalent) Booster Dose” option was also made available for the population ages 5-17 years, 18 years and older, and 65 years and older.
- COVID Data Tracker’s Pediatric Seroprevalence page was updated to display combined seroprevalence (vaccine-induced and infection-induced).
- COVID Data Tracker’s Rates of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths by Vaccination Status page was updated with data on COVID-19 cases through November 19, 2022, and death data through October 29, 2022, from 23 U.S. jurisdictions, representing 50% of the total U.S. population.
- COVID Data Tracker’s 2020-2021 Nationwide COVID-19 Infection- and Vaccination-Induced Antibody Seroprevalence (Blood donations) page was updated with estimates for April–June 2022.
- Racial and Ethnic Differences in COVID-19 Vaccination Coverage and Parental Intent Among Children Ages 5-17 Years – National Immunization Survey-Child COVID Module, United States, October 2021 to January 2022
COVID-19 Community Levels*
As of January 5, 2023, there are 628 (19.5%) counties, districts, or territories with a high COVID-19 Community Level, 1,351 (41.9%) with a medium Community Level, and 1,241 (38.5%) with a low Community Level. Compared with last week, the number of counties, districts, or territories in the high level increased by 10.6%, in the medium level increased by 1.8%, and in the low level decreased by 12.4%. Overall, 49 out of 52 jurisdictions had high- or medium-level counties this week. Hawaii, Maine, and Wyoming are the only jurisdictions to have all counties at low Community Levels.
To check your COVID-19 Community Level, visit COVID Data Tracker. To learn which prevention measures are recommended based on your COVID-19 Community Level, visit COVID-19 Community Level and COVID-19 Prevention.
*CDC recommends use of COVID-19 Community Levels to determine the impact of COVID-19 on communities and to take action. CDC also provides Community Transmission Levels to describe the amount of COVID-19 spread within each county. Healthcare facilities use Community Transmission Levels to determine infection control interventions.
**Includes the 50 states, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico.
Reported Cases
As of January 4, 2023, the current 7-day average of weekly new cases (67,243) increased 16.2% compared with the previous 7-day average (57,847). A total of 101,094,670 COVID-19 cases have been reported in the United States as of January 4, 2023.
Weekly Trends in COVID-19 Cases in the United States Reported to CDC
Variant Proportions
CDC Nowcast projections* for the week ending January 7, 2023, estimate the proportion of lineages designated as Omicron with estimates above 1%: BA.5—and three of its sublineages (BQ.1, BQ.1.1, and BF.7) and BA.2 sublineages BA.2.75, BN.1, XBB, a recombinant of two BA.2 sublineages, and a newly broken out XBB sublineage, XBB.1.5.
The most prevalent Omicron lineages this week are BQ.1.1, projected to be 34.4% (95% PI 26.7-43%); XBB.1.5, projected to be 27.6% (95% PI 14.0-46.5); and BQ.1, projected to be 21.4% (95% PI 16.1-27.7%). XBB, BA.5, BN.1, BF.7, and BA.2.75 are all projected to be between 1% and 5% of circulating viruses.
There are currently major regional differences in the proportions of circulating lineages. XBB.1.5 is projected to comprise >70% of viruses in regions 1 and 2, but <5% of circulating viruses in regions 5, 7, 8, 9, and 10. XBB.1.5 is growing in proportion. All other virus lineages are predicted to have very slow or no growth in proportion.
See COVID Data Tracker for the proportions of all relevant lineages currently circulating.
101,094,670
Total Cases Reported
67,243
Current 7-Day Average**
57,847
Previous 7-Day Average
+16.2%
Change in 7-Day Average since Previous Period
*CDC uses Nowcast projections to predict current variant proportions circulating in the United States. The median time from specimen collection to sequence data reporting is about 3 weeks. As a result, weighted estimates for the most recent few weeks may be unstable or unavailable. View Nowcast estimates on CDC’s COVID Data Tracker website on the Variant Proportions page.
**Historical cases are excluded from weekly new cases and 7-day average calculations until they are incorporated into the dataset for the applicable date. Of 21,397 historical cases reported retroactively, none were reported in the current week and none in the prior week.
Vaccinations
As of January 4, 2023, 665.1 million vaccine doses have been administered in the United States. Overall, about 229.3 million people, or 69.1% of the total U.S. population, have completed a primary series.* More than 48.2 million people, or 15.4% of the U.S. population ages 5 years and older, have received an updated (bivalent) booster dose.
665,076,272
Vaccine Doses Administered
48,469,426
Updated (Bivalent) Booster Doses Administered
229,254,623
People who have completed a primary series* (69.1% of the U.S. population)
48,229,842
People who have received an updated (bivalent) booster (15.4% of the U.S. population)
+0.2
Percentage point change from last week
+1.3%
Percentage point change from last week
*Represents the number of people who have received the second dose in a two-dose COVID-19 vaccine series (such as the Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna, or Novavax vaccines) or one dose of the single-shot Johnson & Johnson’s Janssen vaccine.
Daily Change in the Total Number of Administered COVID-19 Vaccine Doses Reported to CDC by the Date of Administration, United States
7-Day moving average
COVID-19 Updated (Bivalent) Booster Dose Administration, United States
5,764,657
Total New Admissions
6,519
Current 7-Day Average
5,613
Prior 7-Day Average
+16.1%
Change in 7-Day Average
The start of consistent reporting of hospital admissions data was August 1, 2020.
Daily Trends in Number of New COVID-19 Hospital Admissions in the United States
New admissions are pulled from a 10 am EDT snapshot of the HHS Unified Hospital Data – Analytic Dataset. Due to potential reporting delays, data from the most recent 7 days, as noted in the figure above with the grey bar, should be interpreted with caution. Small shifts in historic data may also occur due to changes in the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) Provider of Services file, which is used to identify the cohort of included hospitals.
Hospitalization Rates by Vaccination Status among Adults Ages 65 Years and Older
CDC’s Coronavirus Disease 2019-Associated Hospitalization Surveillance Network (COVID-NET) shows that in November 2022, the rate of COVID-19-associated hospitalizations for unvaccinated adults ages 65 years and older was 13.5 times higher than for those who had received an updated (bivalent) booster dose. The rate for those who had been vaccinated but had not received an updated (bivalent) booster was 2.5 times higher than for those who had received an updated (bivalent) booster dose.
Monthly Rates of COVID-19-Associated Hospitalizations among Adults Ages 65 Years and Older
The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)-Associated Hospitalization Surveillance Network (COVID-NET) is an additional source for hospitalization data collected through a network of more than 250 acute-care hospitals in 14 states (representing ~10% of the U.S. population). Detailed data on patient demographics, including race/ethnicity, underlying medical conditions, medical interventions, and clinical outcomes, are collected using a standardized case reporting form.
Deaths
The current 7-day average of new deaths (390) increased 8.3% compared with the previous 7-day average (360). As of January 4, 2023, a total of 1,091,184 COVID-19 deaths have been reported in the United States.
1,091,184
Total Deaths Reported
390
Current 7-Day Average*
360
Prior 7-Day Average
+8.3%
Change in 7-Day Average Since Prior Period
*Historical deaths are excluded from the weekly new deaths and 7-day average calculations until they are incorporated into the dataset by their applicable date. Of 3,752 historical deaths reported retroactively, none were reported in the current week and none were reported in the prior week.
Testing
The percentage of COVID-19 NAATs (nucleic acid amplification tests)* that are positive is increasing in comparison to the previous week. The 7-day average of percent positivity from NAATs is now 16.0%. The 7-day average number of tests reported for December 23-29, 2022, was 271,509, down 31.4% from 395,910 for the prior 7 days.
1,002,298,528
Total Tests Reported
271,509
7-Day Average Tests Reported
16.0%
7-Day Average % Positivity
14.2%
Previous 7-Day Average % Positivity
+1.85
Percentage point change in 7-Day Average % Positivity since Prior Week
*Test for SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19
COVID-19 NAAT Laboratory Test 7-day Percent Positivity by State/Territory
Wastewater Surveillance
COVID Data Tracker’s Wastewater Surveillance tab tracks levels, changes, and detections of SARS-CoV-2* viral RNA in wastewater at over 1,300 testing sites across the country.
Currently, about 80% of sites across the country are reporting moderate to high SARS-CoV-2 levels in wastewater. About 58% of sites reporting wastewater data are currently seeing some of the highest levels for those sites since December 1, 2021. About 33% of sites are experiencing a decrease in SARS-CoV-2 levels, and about 56% are reporting an increase.
For more information on how to use wastewater data, visit CDC’s wastewater surveillance website.
*The virus that causes COVID-19
SARS-CoV-2 Levels in Wastewater by Site
0% denotes that levels are the lowest they have been at the site; 100% denotes that levels are the highest they have been at the site.