Important update: Healthcare facilities
CDC has updated select ways to operate healthcare systems effectively in response to COVID-19 vaccination. Learn more
Given new evidence on the B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant, CDC has updated the guidance for fully vaccinated people. CDC recommends universal indoor masking for all teachers, staff, students, and visitors to K-12 schools, regardless of vaccination status. Children should return to full-time in-person learning in the fall with layered prevention strategies in place.
The White House announced that vaccines will be required for international travelers coming into the United States, with an effective date of November 8, 2021. For purposes of entry into the United States, vaccines accepted will include FDA approved or authorized and WHO Emergency Use Listing vaccines. More information is available here.
Travel requirements to enter the United States are changing, starting November 8, 2021. More information is available here.

COVID-19 Forecasts: Deaths

COVID-19 Forecasts: Deaths
Updated Mar. 16, 2023

Weekly public releases of COVID-19 ensemble forecasts on deaths were stopped as of March 9, 2023. CDC will continue to collect COVID-19 mortality data for analysis and monitoring purposes.

Death Forecasts

CDC COVID-19 death forecasts are ensemble forecasts which combine diverse independent team forecasts into one forecast. While they have been among the most reliable forecasts in performance over time, even the ensemble forecasts have not reliably predicted rapid changes in the trends of reported cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. They should not be relied upon for making decisions about the possibility or timing of rapid changes in trends.

Previous COVID-19 Death Forecasts 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020

Ensemble and individual team forecast performance were evaluated using a variety of metrics, including the assessment of prediction interval coverage, available at

Additional forecast data and information about teams who submitted forecasts for evaluation and potential inclusion in the ensemble are available at the COVID-19 Forecast Hub.